TotalEnergies has released its 7th annual “TotalEnergies Energy Outlook,” providing an analysis of the global energy system and possible scenarios for its development through 2050. The report is intended to inform public discussion about the energy transition.
The company highlights that around 4.6 billion people still lack access to sufficient energy for basic human development, including healthcare and education. Addressing this need while reducing greenhouse gas emissions is described as a key challenge.
Electricity generation is identified as the largest source of global energy-related emissions, followed by transportation and heat generation for industrial and residential use. Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, the carbon intensity of the global energy system has declined, with energy demand rising but CO2 emission growth slowing. This indicates a decoupling between increased energy use and emissions, according to TotalEnergies.
Renewable sources accounted for nearly 80% of global electricity production growth between 2023 and 2024. Developed countries have reduced coal-fired electricity generation in favor of gas-fired plants, especially in the United States.
Regional differences are becoming more pronounced due to geopolitical tensions and differing priorities regarding energy security and affordability. The United States has achieved energy independence through shale oil and gas production, becoming a net exporter of gas in 2017 and petroleum products in 2020. China continues to lead in low-carbon technologies such as photovoltaic modules, batteries, and electric vehicles, while also modernizing coal power plants and expanding renewable capacity. The European Union remains focused on decarbonizing its electricity mix but faces investment needs for grid upgrades and challenges related to maintaining industrial competitiveness amid slow adoption rates for electric cars and heat pumps.
The report outlines three scenarios for the future:
– The Trends scenario assumes continuation of current policies with gradual technology adoption; coal use declines by 2050, petroleum product demand plateaus before falling after 2040, gas demand grows until plateauing around 2040. This would result in a projected temperature increase of +2.6° to +2.8°C by 2100.
– The Momentum scenario envisions OECD countries reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 (China by 2060), greater electrification, near phase-out of coal in developed nations, continued role for natural gas as a transition fuel, and deployment of new energies like hydrogen in non-electrifiable sectors. Fossil fuels would still cover half the growth in India due to insufficient low-carbon investment; temperature rise would be +2.2° to +2.4°C.
– The Rupture scenario models what would be needed to limit warming below 2°C per Paris Agreement goals: rapid decline in coal use except for hard-to-abate industries, stable natural gas share, sharp increase in low-carbon electricity generation through further electrification; projected warming is +1.7° to +1.9°C.
All scenarios anticipate significant increases in electricity demand driven by new uses; natural gas plays a transitional role; ongoing development of new oil and gas resources will be necessary due to field depletion.
The report states that further progress beyond current trends requires prioritizing affordable existing technologies that reduce CO2 emissions cost-effectively—particularly through international cooperation among OECD countries—and advancing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement regarding cross-border emissions reduction trading systems.
“Since the Paris Agreement, the global energy system has progressed by enabling the continued development of emerging economies while reducing the carbon intensity of the energy produced. Affordable low-carbon technologies are experiencing significant growth, for example solar panels or, in some parts of the world, electric vehicles. However, energy security and affordability issues act as a backstop for the often more local and less expensive carbon-based energies. We anticipate the emergence in the medium term of a transition phase that will follow the current phase of ‘energy addition,’ but it will be a long one: fossil fuels are expected to account for 60% of primary energy demand in 2050, compared to 80% today. To accelerate the transition, public policies must give maximum priority to solutions that offer the lowest cost for reducing CO2 emissions, while promoting the opportunities for cooperation created by the Paris Agreement’s international carbon credit trading system,” said Aurélien Hamelle, President for Strategy & Sustainability.
TotalEnergies describes itself as an integrated global company active across oil and biofuels, natural gas including biogas and low-carbon hydrogen, renewables such as solar power (https://totalenergies.com/energy-expertise/renewables/solar-energy) , wind power (https://totalenergies.com/energy-expertise/renewables/onshore-wind-energy), hydropower (https://totalenergies.com/energy-expertise/renewables/hydroelectric-power), geothermal (https://totalenergies.com/energy-expertise/renewables/geothermal-energy), biomass (https://totalenergies.com/energy-expertise/bioenergies) , as well as electricity markets (https://totalenergies.com/customer-solutions/electricity-gas). With over 100,000 employees operating in about 120 countries worldwide (https://totalenergies.com/about-us/key-figures), TotalEnergies says it places sustainability at its core strategy.
