EDP has announced its 2026–28 Business Plan, aiming to address the expected rise in electricity demand due to electrification and the expansion of data centers. The plan prioritizes investment in renewables and electricity networks.
The company intends to invest about €12 billion between 2026 and 2028. Of this, approximately €7.5 billion will be allocated through EDPR into wind, solar, and battery energy storage systems, with around 60% of these investments taking place in the United States. Another €3.6 billion is set for Electricity Networks, mainly focused on Iberia. EDP also plans to strengthen its flexible generation and client portfolio within Iberia.
EDP expects to recycle capital by targeting roughly €5 billion from asset rotation proceeds during this period, with average annual gains of about €0.2 billion from these activities. Additionally, the company aims for around €1 billion in disposals to support growth in core markets.
Efficiency measures are a key part of the strategy. EDP plans to keep nominal operating expenses flat at about €1.9 billion throughout the plan’s duration and maintain an OPEX/Gross Profit ratio near 26%. The company highlights automation, robotization, and AI-based asset performance management as important tools for improving efficiency.
The plan projects EBITDA at approximately €4.9 billion in 2025, rising gradually to between €4.9–5 billion in 2026 and reaching around €5.2 billion by 2028—a six percent increase compared with estimated figures for 2025. This growth is expected to be driven by renewables expansion in the US market and increased investments in Electricity Networks across Portugal and Spain.
Net debt is forecasted at about €16 billion for both 2025 and 2026 but is projected to decrease by roughly €1 billion to reach around €15 billion by 2028. This reduction is intended to reinforce EDP’s balance sheet while maintaining a solid BBB credit rating; FFO/Net Debt is anticipated to improve from approximately 19% in 2025 up to about 22% by 2028.
Net income is predicted to grow from nearly €1.2 billion in both 2025 and early projections for 2026 up to roughly €1.3 billion by the end of the plan period—an eight percent increase over estimated results for 2025E—alongside a higher proportion of regulated revenues and long-term contracts as well as reduced reliance on asset rotation gains.
EDP also plans an uplift in its dividend floor target: “enabling an uplift in the dividend floor to ~€0.21 per share by 2028 (+5% vs. 2025), with target dividend payout range of ~60-70% over 2026-28, delivering attractive shareholder returns.”
Looking beyond this business plan’s timeframe, EDP sees continued growth opportunities tied primarily to power demand increases from new data centers being built across both US and Europe—driving further renewable investments based on a diverse pipeline—as well as potential repricing benefits through re-contracting operational assets stateside.
