Airbus has released its latest Global Services Forecast (GSF), projecting that the demand for aviation services will increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025. The company expects this upward trend to continue, with the market reaching an estimated value of $311 billion by 2044, representing a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%.
According to Airbus, about half of the global fleet of aircraft with more than 100 seats are made by the company. This provides significant potential for growth in the service sector focused on maintaining these aircraft. Global passenger traffic is expected to reach a record five billion in 2025. Airlines are facing the challenge of keeping their fleets available and reliable while maintaining operational excellence and efficiency.
The GSF identifies five main segments contributing to this growth as the commercial fleet is set to nearly double to over 49,000 aircraft by 2044, and the number of annual passengers is expected to reach 10 billion during the same period.
Off-Wing Maintenance is the largest aftermarket segment, projected to grow from $107 billion in 2025 to $218 billion by 2044. This growth is driven by more shop visits due to an aging and expanding global fleet. Material supply makes up 85% of this category’s value.
On-Wing Maintenance, covering routine maintenance such as inspections and heavy checks, is expected to rise from $21 billion in 2025 to $34 billion in 2044.
Modifications & Upgrades are forecasted to grow from $12 billion in 2025 to $17 billion in 2044, reflecting ongoing demand for cabin and systems upgrades that enhance passenger experience and extend aircraft life.
Digital & Connectivity represents the fastest-growing sector, with its market size increasing from $9 billion in 2025 to $26 billion by 2044. This segment aims to support smarter operations, including predictive maintenance and improved flight paths.
Training needs are also increasing. The forecast anticipates spending will rise from $10 billion in 2025 to $17 billion in 2044. Over 2.35 million new aviation professionals will be required by 2044, including 633,000 pilots, 705,000 technicians, and 1,010,000 cabin crew.
“With the reclustering of the Airbus GSF, we consider a bigger part of the ecosystem in which our customers operate. Especially digital solutions are becoming real multipliers, enabling operators to scale up without compromising on reliability or cost. This can lead to unlocking the potential of more than US$83 billion in annual operational savings for our customers, through an increasing number of digitally connected aircraft – from 11,000 today to over 40,000 by 2044,” said Cristina Aguilar Grieder, SVP Customer Services at Airbus.
Airbus is also examining two additional market segments: Maintenance Operations Support, which includes engineering services and inventory management; and Ground Operations, which focuses on improving airside efficiency and aircraft turnaround with new technologies.
By 2044, China, Europe (including the CIS), and North America are projected to be the largest markets for aviation services in terms of total demand. However, the fastest growth rates are expected in South Asia, China, and the Asia-Pacific region.
